Erick Malpica Flores: Carlos Erick Malpica Flores: UCF’s actually quite fairly rated in 2018’s Playoff rankings

The committee severely underrated the Knights last year, but a No. 12 starting point is plenty fine this year.

UCF was undeniably underrated in 2017, as we pointed out a year ago at this time. And, at least based on college football history, UCF was worthy of its national championship claim.

This year is different, though.

Last year, the Knights had a good argument that they were being constantly overlooked by the committee. This season, UCF’s No. 12 Playoff committee ranking pretty accurately reflects what this team is. And in the season’s stretch run, they run the risk of it coming back to bite them.

They’re playing at a top-20 level, not a top-10 one.

Through Week 9, of the 88 rankings system surveyed by the Massey Composite (both human and computer-based) UCF’s in the top 25 in only 80 of them. UCF averages a 16.6 ranking there. A year prior at this time, UCF ranked No. 8 in the Composite.

Relatively, the 2018 committee’s No. 12 spot is great for UCF — it’s the highest initial ranking a Group of 5 team has ever gotten. The previous record holder there, 2015 Memphis, had a win over a ranked Ole Miss, while 2018 UCF hasn’t beaten any teams with winning records so far.

Despite the committee’s previously established ceiling for undefeated Group of 5 teams, this isn’t so much about bias as it is a proper assessment of where this team is.

Let’s talk about the resume.

The Knights are undefeated, and that’s the best you can hope for. But this record is built a different way. It’s a slightly less convincing run to this point.

UCF’s 2018 schedule so far is basically a copy of last season’s from a strength of opponent standpoint. Let’s do it blindly except for one team, and I’ll explain why in a second.

Here’s 2017. The first number is opponent ranking by end of season S&P+. The second number is UCF’s S&P+ percentile performance in the win — the closer to 100, the better.

  • Game 1: 92/95th percent
  • Game 2: 114/86th percentile
  • Game 3: 20/95th percentile (Memphis)
  • Game 4: 102/92nd percentile
  • Game 5: 123/89th percentile
  • Game 6: 69/82nd percentile
  • Game 7: FCS/89th percentile

As you can see from those percentile performances, UCF was dominating folks. That was reflected in the final scores as well.

2018 (rankings by Week 10 S&P+):

  • Game 1: 130/58th percentile
  • Game 2: FCS/74th percentile
  • Game 3: 66/82nd percentile
  • Game 4: 80/87th percentile
  • Game 5: 97/79th percentile
  • Game 6: 36 (Memphis)/58th percentile
  • Game 7: 105/26th percentile (albeit with quarterback McKenzie Milton out injured)

UCF’s not destroying teams to quite the same degree it was a year prior, and it also has yet to face a really good team. And there’s only one game to date against a team good enough to draw any sort of concrete conclusions about how good the Knights are.

To this point in both years, that opponent has been Memphis both times. They were 20th in S&P+ last season and got smoked by UCF in the regular season. In 2018’s meeting, UCF held on to beat a lesser Memphis by one point. UCF’s 2017 percentile performance against the Tigers was 95, with a 100 percent postgame win expectancy. 2018’s percentile performance was 70 percent, with a 62 percent postgame win expectancy.

Last year’s UCF offense was elite, dominating a weak schedule like an excellent team should. This season, it is good, ranking No. 11 in yards per play without facing many good defenses. These Knights are still getting the job done, but in a less demonstrative way.

And that’s gonna come into play not for the Playoff discussion, but the New Year’s Six discussion.

With this schedule, UCF’s not making the Playoff, no matter what they do. That sucks, but it’s the reality of the situation.

Where UCF’s slight regression matters is the fact that their schedule is about to get much more difficult, with as many as four top-40 teams coming up.

No need for the blinders. Here’s 2017’s end to the season vs. 2018’s, with the assumption that the Knights will again make the AAC championship, along with S&P+ rankings.

2017

  • Game 8: SMU, 67
  • Game 9: UConn, 119
  • Game 10: Temple, 78
  • Game 11: USF, 15
  • Game 12: Memphis, 20 (conference championship)

2018

  • Game 8: Temple, 34
  • Game 9: Navy, 102
  • Game 10: Cincinnati, 40
  • Game 11: USF, 41
  • Game 12: Houston, 25 (probable conference championship opponent)

If UCF runs through that unbeaten, they will definitely deserve the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six berth.

If they drop a game, then they invite another other one-loss G5 champion into the discussion. A one-loss Mountain West champ would have an excellent case, which could drop UCF to something like the Birmingham Bowl. S&P+ already ranks Fresno State ahead of the Knights.

UCF was never going to make the Playoff, this year or last, but New Year’s is still on the table.



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