Erick Malpica Flores: Carlos Erick Malpica Flores: The weaknesses that could break every team in the Final Four

Villanova’s foul-shot frequency! Kansas’ defense! Michigan’s foul-shot woes! And Loyola’s size!

At this point in the NCAA tournament, we’re dealing with a small enough group of remaining teams that no outcome would be all that weird. Loyola Chicago’s still an 11th seed and nominally the underdog, and Villanova’s a No. 1 and nominally the favorite, but either of those teams losing a semifinal or going all the way would be unsurprising.

Every Final Four team is good, or it wouldn’t be here. But all of them have at least one (relative) weakness that could cripple them before they can win two more games.

Villanova doesn’t shoot a ton of free throws.

The Wildcats are the closest thing college basketball has to a perfect team. They have the most efficient offense in the country and a top-15 defense to go with it. Their roster is loaded with knockdown shooters, often including five of them on the floor at the same time. But Villanova might have a hard time winning a game decided at the foul line.

Nova can avoid this fate by just making a bunch of shots from the field, of course. And we’re really cherry-picking to find anything wrong with this team at all. But the Wildcats are 281st out of 351 Division I teams in free-throw rate as a percentage of their shots from the floor. That means they don’t get to the line often, usually, though they’ve seen a spike in foul shots over their last two games. There’s a world in which Villanova doesn’t shoot well from the field (it happens to everyone) and can’t make it up by getting to the stripe.

Kansas could be done in by defense

As gifted as the Jayhawks are on offense — Kansas ranks fifth in the nation in points per possession and shoots threes at a 40.3 percent clip, 11th in the NCAA — the other end of the court could pose problems, especially against an even better offense in Villanova.

Kansas ranks 40th in the nation in defensive points per possession, and in the NCAA tournament has allowed 38 threes in four games, at a 39.6 percent rate. Their Saturday opponent, the Wildcats, set an NCAA record with 48 three-pointers in their first four rounds, and could make things difficult for the Jayhawks in the national semifinal.

The key to it all might be 7-foot center Udoka Azubuike, who is back from a knee injury but has been limited somewhat in the NCAA tournament by foul trouble, fouling out of the last two wins. Azubuike has averaged just 22 minutes in the last three games, but if he can stay on the floor he’ll help Kansas control the middle and give its wings a little more freedom on defense. If not, it could be bombs away for Villanova against the Jayhawks.

Michigan is miserable from the foul line

Out of 351 teams, the Wolverines rank No. 326 in the country at 66.1 percent from the free-throw line. That’s really bad. These are wide-open shots! They don’t get to the line often either, ranking No. 258 in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt, according to KenPom.

Guard Charles Matthews is at the line the most frequently among Michigan players, but shoots a brutal 57 percent. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman is next at 75 percent, Moritz Wagner shoots 70 percent, and Zavier Simpson shoots 51 percent. Sheesh!

If things are close down the stretch, the only truly reliable options are freshman Jordan Poole (83 percent) and Duncan Robinson (90 percent). They’re great, but that leaves too many unreliable options on the court.

Loyola-Chicago lacks size

Although the Ramblers are sound on almost every level you’d want a basketball team to be, there is one glaring thing missing — lack of size. Aside from 6’7’’ center Cameron Krutweg, who averages 24 minutes per game, there really aren’t a ton of big men left who rotate down low. Usually, guard Donte Ingram, who is 6’6’’ slides into the center spot when Kruweg is on the bench.

Other than those two, there really isn’t anyone else with size in the regular rotation for Loyola. If a team can shut down the Ramblers’ rotation on offense, they might need a lot more productivity down low.

View Source

View Source